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Pocket Option: In-depth analysis of KOS stock and 3 effective investment strategies

Pocket Option: In-depth analysis of KOS stock and 3 effective investment strategies

14 min to read

10 April 2025

14 min to read

KOS Stock: Comprehensive analysis and 5 potential investment opportunities in 2025

The Vietnamese stock market is experiencing strong fluctuations with the VN-Index rising 8.2% since the beginning of 2025, and in this context, KOS stock has emerged as a noteworthy investment choice with a 22.5% increase in Q1/2025. This article will provide a comprehensive analysis of KOS stock, from financial data to technical models, helping you seize rare investment opportunities in Vietnam's current market environment.

Overview of KOS Stock and its Position in the Vietnamese Market

KOS stock is the trading code of Kosy Joint Stock Company, a business established in 2008 with an initial charter capital of 86 billion VND, which has now increased to 2,345 billion VND (as of Q1/2025). Kosy operates mainly in two sectors: premium real estate and renewable energy, with 75% of revenue from real estate and 25% from green energy in 2024.

From Q3/2024 until now, KOS stock has recorded a 245% increase in trading volume, from an average of 1.2 million shares/session to 4.15 million shares/session. This reflects investors’ growing interest in Kosy’s expansion strategy into renewable energy – a trend being prioritized by the Vietnamese government with a preferential tax policy of 10% for the first 15 years of operation.

According to exclusive data from Pocket Option, KOS’s market capitalization has increased from 1,850 billion VND (April 2024) to 2,950 billion VND (April 2025), equivalent to a 59.5% increase over 12 months. Notably, foreign investor ownership has increased from 4.8% to 7.2% during the same period, despite the general trend of capital withdrawal from the Vietnamese stock market.

Indicator	Value	Compared to Industry	12-month Trend
Market Capitalization	2,950 billion VND	Average (Real Estate Industry: 3,150 billion)	↑ 59.5%
P/E	15.2	Lower than industry average (17.8)	↓ From 16.5
ROE	12.8%	Higher than industry average (9.6%)	↑ From 10.5%
Dividend Yield	4.5%	Higher than industry average (3.2%)	→ Unchanged
Beta	1.25	Higher volatility than market	↑ From 1.08

Fundamental Analysis of KOS Stock – Growth Potential

In-depth analysis of KOS stock from Pocket Option experts points to three key fundamental factors. First, Kosy is implementing a “two-pillar” strategy with a 70:30 investment ratio between real estate and renewable energy – a model uncommon in Vietnam but proven effective in Thai and Malaysian markets for balancing cash flow.

Second, Kosy owns a land bank of 685 hectares across 6 provinces, with 78% having completed legal procedures, at an average cost of 2.3 million VND/m², 35% lower than current market prices. Third, the renewable energy segment is benefiting from incentives under Decision 13/2020/QD-TTg with FIT prices (feed-in tariff) guaranteed for 20 years.

Business and Financial Results

Kosy’s Q1/2025 financial report recorded revenue of 1,250 billion VND, an 18.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Notably, gross profit margin improved from 20.4% to 25.2%, higher than the average for real estate (18.7%) and energy (22.1%) industries in Vietnam. According to Kosy’s CFO, this improvement came from recognizing revenue from the Nam Pac Hydropower Project (34MW capacity) which began operations in December 2024.

Indicator	2023	2024	2025 (Q1)	YoY Growth
Revenue	2,850 billion VND	3,380 billion VND	1,250 billion VND	+18.7%
Gross Profit	580 billion VND	690 billion VND	315 billion VND	+22.1%
Net Profit	290 billion VND	335 billion VND	142 billion VND	+15.3%
EPS	2,450 VND	2,820 VND	1,180 VND	+14.8%
Debt/Equity Ratio	65%	48%	45%	Decreased by 20 percentage points

Regarding financial structure, Kosy has significantly reduced its debt ratio from 65% (2022) to 45% (Q1/2025), lower than the real estate industry average (57%). The company’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) has decreased from 12.3% to 10.1%, helping to increase profitability and reduce cash flow pressure amid interest rate fluctuations.

Project Portfolio and Prospects

Currently, Kosy is implementing 8 major projects, including 3 real estate projects in the sales phase and 5 energy projects at different stages. The expected Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of these projects ranges from 18% to 25%, higher than the industry average of 16.5%.

Project	Location	Total Investment	Progress	Expected IRR
Kosy City	Thai Nguyen	1,800 billion VND	80% (delivery Q3/2025)	21%
Kosy Riverside	Lao Cai	1,200 billion VND	65% (delivery Q4/2025)	19%
Kosy Mountain View	Hoa Binh	950 billion VND	45% (delivery Q2/2026)	18%
Kosy Bac Lieu Wind Power Plant	Bac Lieu	3,500 billion VND	90% (operation Q2/2025)	25%
Nam Pac Hydropower Project	Dien Bien	780 billion VND	100% (operating since 12/2024)	22%
Kosy Ninh Thuan Solar Power Project	Ninh Thuan	1,450 billion VND	30% (expected Q1/2026)	20%
Kosy Soc Trang Wind Power Project	Soc Trang	2,800 billion VND	15% (expected Q3/2026)	23%
Kosy Bac Giang Urban Area	Bac Giang	1,350 billion VND	20% (expected Q4/2026)	20%

Pocket Option‘s analysis indicates that the renewable energy segment will contribute 42% of Kosy’s profits by 2026, up from the current 25%. This is a differentiating factor for KOS stock compared to peers, as most Vietnamese real estate companies focus on only one sector. This diversification strategy helps Kosy reduce cyclical risks in the real estate industry and take advantage of incentive policies from Resolution 55-NQ/TW on national energy development.

Technical Analysis and KOS Stock Price Trends

Looking at the technical chart, KOS stock has formed a “Cup and Handle” pattern over the past 6 months – a technical pattern with an 82.5% success rate according to Pocket Option statistics for the Vietnamese market. The accumulation zone from October 2024 to March 2025 was broken on April 5, 2025, with an unusual trading volume of 8.3 million shares, 2.7 times the 20-session average.

Key technical indicators for KOS are currently as follows:

The MA20 line (19,350 VND) crossed above the MA50 (18,720 VND) on March 28, 2025, forming a “Golden Cross” – a strong buy signal
RSI currently at 62.4 – not yet in overbought territory (>70), still room for price increases
MACD = +0.58, above the Signal Line (+0.22) and crossed above the 0 line since March 25, 2025
Bollinger Bands are widening with price breaking above the upper band, confirming a strong uptrend
Average trading volume in the last 10 days reached 4.15 million shares/session, up 35% from 3.07 million shares/session in the previous 30 days

According to Pocket Option‘s Fibonacci Retracement analysis model, KOS has broken above the 61.8% level at 19,850 VND and is heading toward the resistance level of 20,500 VND (78.6% level). Current important support and resistance levels are:

Type	Price Level (VND)	Technical Significance
Strong Resistance R2	23,800	Historical peak June 2023
Resistance R1	20,500	Fibonacci 78.6% + January 2025 peak
Current Price	19,450	Above MA20 and MA50
Support S1	18,700	MA50 + Fibonacci 50%
Strong Support S2	17,200	Bottom of the “handle” + Fibonacci 38.2%

Applying Pocket Option‘s quantitative model based on 62 stocks with similar patterns on HOSE during 2020-2024, the probability of KOS rising an additional 15-20% from current levels in the next 3 months is 72.4%, provided that the VN-Index does not correct more than 8% from current levels. The Elliott Wave pivot points show that KOS is in wave 3 of a 5-wave upward cycle, typically the strongest and longest wave.

Macroeconomic Factors Affecting KOS Stock

To comprehensively assess the prospects of KOS stock, we need to consider 5 key macroeconomic factors currently impacting the Vietnamese market in general and Kosy in particular.

Real Estate Market and New 2025 Policies

The Vietnamese real estate market is entering a recovery cycle with 4 main drivers: The 2024 Land Law effective from January 1, 2025, housing loan interest rates decreasing to an average of 8.2% (down 2.5 percentage points compared to early 2024), the 120,000 billion VND credit package (equivalent to $4.8 billion) with 42% disbursed as of March 2025, and the draft amended Real Estate Business Law expected to be passed in Q2/2025.

Policy	Timing	Specific Impact on Kosy
2024 Land Law	Effective from 1/1/2025	Shortens real estate project approval time by 35%; 3 Kosy projects will have expedited legal procedures
120,000 billion VND credit package	2024-2026	28% increase in transaction volume at Kosy City and Riverside projects in Q1/2025
Reduced real estate loan interest rates	From 10.7% → 8.2%	Kosy’s cost of capital decreased by 2.2% compared to the same period in 2024
Draft amended Real Estate Business Law	Expected to be passed in Q2/2025	Simplifies sales procedures, reduces legal costs by 15%
Resolution 55-NQ/TW	In progress	Guarantees FIT price for Bac Lieu wind power project for 20 years

In particular, Decree 35/2024/ND-CP (effective from May 15, 2024) has simplified 21 administrative procedures for real estate project approval. According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA), this will “release” about 30 suspended projects with a total investment of $25 billion, including 2 Kosy projects in Bac Giang and Ha Nam.

Energy Policy and Industry Prospects

According to Power Development Plan VIII approved by the Prime Minister in Decision 500/QD-TTg dated May 15, 2023, Vietnam aims to increase the proportion of renewable energy to 30.9-39.2% by 2030 and 67.5-71.5% by 2050. To achieve this goal, Vietnam needs to add approximately 20GW of wind power and 18GW of solar power by 2030.

Decree 42/2024/ND-CP on mechanisms to encourage the development of solar and wind power (effective from April 20, 2024) introduces new FIT prices for onshore wind power at 7.5 US cents/kWh and solar power at 7.2 US cents/kWh, guaranteed for 20 years. Kosy is one of 27 businesses that have been approved for wind power projects with a total capacity of 7,200MW.

Investment Strategy for KOS Stock for Vietnamese Investors

Based on comprehensive analysis of KOS stock, Pocket Option experts propose 3 specific investment strategies for different investor groups:

“30-day Surfing” Strategy: Applied to short-term investors, taking advantage of momentum from resistance breakout. Buy KOS in the 19,200-19,500 VND range, target 21,000-21,800 VND (+10-12%), stop-loss at 18,500 VND (-3.5%).
“Quarterly Harvest” Strategy: For medium-term investors over 3-6 months. Accumulate KOS in the 18,700-19,500 VND range with 3 buy orders (40% at 19,500, 30% if it corrects to 19,000, 30% if it reaches 18,700), set target at 23,000-24,000 VND (+18-23%), stop-loss below 17,800 VND (-8.7%).
“Dividend Growth” Strategy: Suitable for long-term investors. Buy KOS in the 18,500-20,000 VND range, hold for 24-36 months, combining dividend income (expected 4.5-5.0%/year) and price growth (expected 25-30% over 2 years).

Pocket Option‘s DCFF (Discounted Cash Flow to Firm) quantitative model determines the fair value of KOS at 24,500 VND (upside +26% from current price), based on assumptions: revenue growth of 22% (2025), 18% (2026), 15% (2027), WACC 10.1%, terminal growth rate 5%.

Strategy	Buy Zone	Target	Stop Loss	Holding Period	Expected Return
30-day Surfing	19,200-19,500 VND	21,000-21,800 VND	18,500 VND (-3.5%)	2-4 weeks	+10-12%
Quarterly Harvest	18,700-19,500 VND	23,000-24,000 VND	17,800 VND (-8.7%)	3-6 months	+18-23%
Dividend Growth	18,500-20,000 VND	27,000-30,000 VND	16,500 VND (-15%)	24-36 months	+25-30% + dividends 9-10%

A particularly important point: when investing in KOS, Vietnamese investors should consider tax specificities. Under current regulations, if holding stocks for more than 2 years, investors are exempt from personal income tax on cash dividends (usually 5%). Additionally, the transfer of listed stocks is subject to a 0.1% tax on the total transaction value, regardless of profit or loss – this is a very low tax rate compared to other markets in the region.

Risk Management When Investing in KOS Stock

Although KOS stock has many positive prospects, investors need to identify and manage these 5 main risks:

Policy Risk: Sudden changes in land and real estate regulations, or adjustments to FIT prices for renewable energy could affect Kosy’s business plans. Decree 15/2022/ND-CP on land tax exemptions and reductions will expire on December 31, 2025, potentially increasing costs for new projects.
Financial Risk: Although the debt ratio has decreased to 45%, with total outstanding debt of 2,650 billion VND, each 1% interest rate increase will raise financial costs by approximately 26.5 billion VND/year. Notably, 35% of Kosy’s debt is in USD, posing exchange rate risk as the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates more slowly than previously anticipated.
Project Implementation Risk: The Bac Lieu wind power project is facing difficulties transporting turbines from Europe, potentially delaying 2-3 months from the original plan (Q2/2025). This could affect 12-15% of the 2025 revenue plan.
Market Risk: KOS has a Beta coefficient of 1.25, fluctuating 25% more strongly than the VN-Index. In a scenario where the VN-Index corrects by 10%, KOS could decrease by approximately 12.5% according to the quantitative model.
Specific Risk: Kosy’s land bank is concentrated in satellite provinces (not HCMC or Hanoi), so liquidity may be lower and sales periods longer compared to projects in major cities.

To effectively manage the above risks, Pocket Option recommends 5 specific measures:

Risk Management Measure	Specific Implementation Method	Priority Level
Portfolio Diversification	KOS should not exceed 5-7% of total portfolio; combine with stocks from other sectors like banking, retail	High
Set Dual Stop Loss	Stop loss both by price (-8% from purchase price) and time (if price moves sideways for more than 15 consecutive sessions)	High
Phase Capital Allocation	Divide capital into 3-4 parts, buy gradually in the target price zone at a 40:30:30 ratio	Medium
Regular Information Monitoring	Register for notifications from Kosy; check weekly analysis reports from Pocket Option	Medium
Use Derivative Tools	Buy PUTs on VN30 to protect portfolio when holding large KOS volume (>100,000 shares)	Low (only for professional investors)

A rarely mentioned perspective: during strong price increases for KOS (like currently), investors might consider a “trailing stop” strategy. Specifically, instead of setting a fixed stop-loss, adjust the stop-loss level according to the current price, for example always maintaining an 8% distance below the highest price reached. This strategy allows “letting profits run” in an uptrend while still protecting most profits when the trend reverses.

Comparing KOS Stock with Peer Stocks

To get an objective view of KOS’s position, we’ll compare in detail with 5 small and medium-sized stocks in the real estate and energy sectors in Vietnam:

Indicator	KOS	VIC	NLG	HDG	POW	REE
Price 10/04/2025 (VND)	19,450	45,800	28,200	31,500	14,300	82,600
Market Cap (billion VND)	2,950	152,450	8,460	6,300	33,542	25,600
Current P/E	15.2	33.8	18.5	12.8	11.2	14.3
Forward P/E 2025	13.6	28.5	17.2	11.5	10.8	13.5
P/B	1.8	3.2	1.6	1.5	1.2	2.1
ROE (%)	12.8	9.5	10.2	12.5	10.8	15.2
Profit Growth 2024	+15.5%	+12.2%	+8.5%	+18.2%	+5.8%	+16.3%
Dividend Yield (%)	4.5	1.2	3.8	5.0	6.2	3.5
Debt/Equity	0.45	0.62	0.38	0.52	0.31	0.48
Beta	1.25	1.35	1.18	1.22	0.85	0.92
Industry Diversification	Real Estate + Energy	Real Estate + Retail + Technology	Pure Real Estate	Real Estate + Small Hydropower	Pure Energy	Real Estate + Electricity + Water

From the comparison table above, 5 main competitive advantages of KOS stand out:

Reasonable Valuation: P/E much lower than VIC (33.8) and NLG (18.5), equivalent to REE (14.3) – a company with a similar business model (diversified real estate and energy)
High Capital Efficiency: ROE reaches 12.8%, only lower than REE (15.2%) but significantly higher than VIC, NLG, and POW
Favorable Profit Growth: 15.5% increase in 2024 is higher than the industry average (12.8%), only lower than HDG (18.2%)
Balance between Growth and Dividends: Dividend yield of 4.5% is quite attractive, higher than VIC, NLG, and REE
Sustainable Diversification Strategy: Combining real estate and renewable energy (not coal or gas like POW), creating more stable cash flow than pure real estate companies like NLG

According to Pocket Option‘s exclusive analysis, KOS is currently undervalued by about 12-15% compared to fair value based on the relative P/E model, when compared with businesses with similar business models like HDG and REE. This creates an attractive opportunity for investors as the market gradually recognizes the company’s true value of diversification strategy.

A notable point is that during the 2022-2024 period, when the real estate market faced difficulties, diversified companies like REE and HDG all outperformed pure real estate companies. With the proportion of revenue from energy expected to increase to 42% by 2026, KOS has the potential to follow REE’s successful model – a company that has tripled in price over the past 5 years thanks to a similar diversification strategy.

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Conclusion and Future Outlook

After comprehensive analysis of fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic factors, KOS stock clearly demonstrates 5 main strengths that make it an attractive investment choice for Vietnamese investors in 2025:

Balanced Business Model: Kosy has succeeded with a “two-pillar” strategy – combining real estate cash flow (high profit but cyclical) with renewable energy (stable long-term profit)
Sustainable Growth: Revenue and profit CAGR reached 18.5% and 15.3% over the past 3 years, higher than the industry average (13.2% and 11.5%)
Attractive Valuation: Current P/E of 15.2x is 15% lower than the industry average, while ROE is 25% higher than average
Technical Trend Confirmation: The “Cup and Handle” pattern has completed with surge in volume, confirming a new uptrend
Policy Drivers: Benefiting from two industries being prioritized for support by the Vietnamese government: real estate (new Land Law, 120,000 billion credit package) and renewable energy (Resolution 55-NQ/TW)

Pocket Option‘s valuation model forecasts 3 scenarios for KOS in the next 12 months:

Scenario	Probability	Target Price	Increase/Decrease	Main Assumptions
Positive	35%	26,500 VND	+36.2%	Profit growth 25%, target P/E 16x
Base	50%	23,800 VND	+22.4%	Profit growth 18%, target P/E 15x
Conservative	15%	21,000 VND	+8.0%	Profit growth 12%, target P/E 14x

With a risk-reward ratio of 3.2:1 in the base scenario, KOS is currently one of the stocks with the best ratio in the small and medium capitalization group on HOSE, according to Pocket Option‘s assessment.

Conclusion: KOS stock deserves to be added to the watchlist and investment portfolio of Vietnamese investors, with appropriate strategies depending on objectives and risk appetite. For medium and long-term investors, KOS offers the opportunity to own a business with a sustainable business model, attractive valuation, and long-term growth potential from two industries being prioritized for development in Vietnam.

Investors should start accumulating KOS in the 18,700-19,500 VND range, applying a capital allocation strategy at a ratio of 40:30:30, and closely monitor the progress of two key projects: Kosy City (Thai Nguyen) and Bac Lieu Wind Power Plant – the two main growth drivers for the company in the next 12-18 months.

FAQ

What are the main business areas of Kosy Company?

Kosy Joint Stock Company (stock code KOS) operates mainly in two sectors: real estate and renewable energy. In real estate, the company develops housing projects and urban areas in various provinces such as Thai Nguyen, Lao Cai, and Hoa Binh, accounting for 75% of revenue in 2024. In renewable energy, Kosy is investing in a 90MW wind power project in Bac Lieu, a 34MW hydroelectric plant in Dien Bien (operational since December 2024), and solar power projects in Ninh Thuan, accounting for 25% of revenue.

What are the main strengths of KOS stock compared to others in the same industry?

KOS stock has 5 notable strengths: (1) Reasonable valuation with a P/E of 15.2, 15% lower than the industry average; (2) High ROE of 12.8%, 25% higher than the industry average; (3) Profit growth of 15.5% in 2024, higher than the average of 12.8%; (4) Attractive dividend yield of 4.5%; (5) A "dual pillar" strategy combining real estate cash flow with renewable energy, helping to balance risk and take advantage of preferential policies from Resolution 55-NQ/TW and Decision 500/QD-TTg in the green energy sector.

What are the main risks when investing in KOS stock?

Investors should note 5 main risks: (1) Policy risk - Decree 15/2022/ND-CP on land tax exemptions will expire on December 31, 2025; (2) Financial risk - 35% of Kosy's debt is in USD, posing exchange rate risks when the Fed adjusts interest rates; (3) Implementation risk - the Bac Lieu wind power project is facing difficulties in transporting turbines from Europe, possibly delayed by 2-3 months; (4) Market risk - KOS has a Beta of 1.25, fluctuating 25% more than the VN-Index; (5) Specific risk - the land bank is concentrated in satellite provinces, potentially having lower liquidity than projects in major cities.

What investment strategy is suitable for KOS stock for Vietnamese investors?

Pocket Option suggests 3 specific strategies: (1) "30-day swing trading" for short-term investors - buy in the range of 19,200-19,500 VND, target 21,000-21,800 VND (+10-12%), stop loss at 18,500 VND; (2) "Quarterly harvesting" for 3-6 month investors - accumulate in the range of 18,700-19,500 VND with 3 purchase orders distributed 40:30:30, target 23,000-24,000 VND (+18-23%); (3) "Dividend growth" for long-term investors - buy in the range of 18,500-20,000 VND, hold for 24-36 months, enjoy dividends of 4.5-5.0%/year and price growth of 25-30%. Investors should apply risk management with dual stop-loss (both price and time) and portfolio diversification (KOS not exceeding 5-7% of the total portfolio).

How does Kosy's renewable energy business outlook affect the stock price?

The renewable energy segment plays a key role in KOS's outlook for 3 reasons: (1) According to Power Development Plan VIII (Decision 500/QD-TTg), Vietnam aims to increase the proportion of renewable energy to 30.9-39.2% by 2030, creating significant opportunities for Kosy; (2) Decree 42/2024/ND-CP introduces new FIT prices for wind power (7.5 US cents/kWh) and solar power (7.2 US cents/kWh) guaranteed for 20 years, helping Kosy secure long-term stable cash flow; (3) The contribution from renewable energy is expected to increase from 25% to 42% of profits by 2026, helping to balance the real estate business cycle. Pocket Option's research shows that during 2022-2024, companies combining real estate and energy like REE and HDG outperformed pure real estate businesses, creating price appreciation potential for KOS following a similar model.