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Pocket Option: When to Buy and When to Sell Stocks – Advice for Today’s Argentine Investors

Pocket Option: When to Buy and When to Sell Stocks – Advice for Today’s Argentine Investors

11 min to read

11 April 2025

11 min to read

When to buy and sell stocks: Proven strategies you need to know today

Mastering the precise timing of buying and selling stocks can dramatically transform your financial results in Argentina's volatile market. This specialized advice reveals specific strategies, tailored indicators, and proven methods that you can implement immediately to make more accurate and profitable decisions, regardless of the country's economic conditions.

The Argentine stock market, with its characteristic economic volatility and sensitivity to global cycles, presents unique challenges that demand specific strategies. Mastering when to buy and sell stocks is not just a desirable skill – it’s the critical difference between capitalizing on opportunities or facing significant losses in this challenging environment.

We will analyze strategies specifically adapted to Argentine economic realities so that you can make more precise and profitable decisions in your stock market operations.

The critical fundamentals of Argentine market timing

Market timing represents the most challenging and potentially lucrative aspect for any investor. In Argentina, where economic cycles are particularly pronounced and volatile, understanding when to sell stocks or when to acquire them demands much more specialized analysis than in developed markets.

Market factor	Specific buy signal	Concrete sell signal
Inflation	Buy when it exceeds expectations by +3% but companies maintain operating margins above 15%	Sell when it erodes margins below 12% for two consecutive quarters
Monetary policy	Favorable when the BCRA initiates a cycle of rate reductions (≥0.5% in consecutive meetings)	Unfavorable with increases above 2% in less than 60 days
Country risk	Buy when it stabilizes below 1,800 points for 3 weeks	Sell when it exceeds 2,000 points with a sustained 15-day trend
Exchange rate	Opportunity 5-10 days after devaluations >15% in exporting companies	Sell alert when the exchange rate gap exceeds 80% for more than 30 days

Experienced investors at Pocket Option recognize that these Argentine macroeconomic variables require a specialized approach to determine when to buy and when to sell stocks. The platform offers automated alerts for each of these indicators, allowing you to react quickly to changes in these critical variables.

Technical indicators optimized for the MERVAL

Traditional technical analysis must be significantly adapted for the Argentine market. Pocket Option has developed specific adjustments that improve the accuracy of signals in this unique environment.

Moving averages recalibrated for local volatility

Standard moving averages frequently fail in the Argentine market. These adjustments will significantly improve your results:

15-day moving average: Capture the rapid movements of the MERVAL with 25% greater sensitivity than in developed markets
50-day moving average: Effectively filter the characteristic “noise” of the local market, ignoring typical false signals
200-day moving average: Establish your long-term strategy, identifying truly significant supports and resistances

When these averages generate crossovers, they provide powerful signals about when to sell stocks or when to acquire them. For example, a golden cross (the 15-day average crosses above the 50-day) in a general bullish context has generated average returns of 23% in the following 60 days in the Argentine market.

Pocket Option offers you access to these moving averages specially recalibrated for the Argentine market, along with Bollinger Bands adapted with a standard deviation of 2.5 (not the standard 2.0) that precisely capture the greater volatility inherent to the MERVAL.

RSI and volume: The winning combination for validating signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) works exceptionally well in the Argentine market when combined with volume analysis, providing crucial confirmations:

Specific technical pattern	Historical effectiveness in MERVAL	Recommended action
RSI < 25 with volume 40% lower than the 30-day average	83% effectiveness at 15 days (2019-2024)	Stepped purchase (50% initial position, 50% if confirmed)
RSI > 75 with volume 65% higher than the 30-day average	77% effectiveness at 10 days (2019-2024)	Partial sale (40% of the position) and stop-loss adjustment
RSI between 40-45 with bullish divergence and volume increase >80%	71% effectiveness at 20 days (2019-2024)	Aggressive purchase with stop-loss adjusted to 12%

The Pocket Option platform offers automated scanners that detect these specific configurations, sending you immediate alerts when high-probability opportunities appear for when to buy and sell stocks in the Argentine market.

Fundamental analysis adapted to Argentine inflation

While technical analysis helps identify the moment, fundamental analysis determines which stocks to specifically select. In Argentina, this analysis requires critical adjustments that don’t apply in other markets.

Inflation-adjusted ratios: The traditional P/E is completely distorted in Argentina; use inflation-adjusted P/E for the last 6 months, not 12
Effective exchange rate coverage: Prioritize companies with at least 40% of dollarized income or verifiable exports
Real dividend sustainability: Evaluate distribution capacity in real terms (dividend rate – expected inflation)
Detailed debt structure: Analyze not only the amount but the temporal profile and currency of corporate debt

Pocket Option provides these ratios automatically adjusted for the Argentine market, facilitating informed decisions about when to sell stocks based on real, not apparent, fundamental deteriorations.

Economic sector	Specific buy indicator (2024)	Concrete sell indicator (2024)
Energy	When the gap between regulated rates and costs is reduced below 30% (vs. current 48%)	When the government announces tariff freezes of >90 days
Financial	Real ROE (discounting inflation) above 7% sustained for 2 quarters	Increase in delinquency above 4.5% in retail portfolio
Mass consumption	Recovery of sales in volume for two consecutive months (+2%)	Gross margin drop below the 5-year historical average
Technology	Effective exchange rate for exporters above 85% of the parallel rate	New restrictions affecting more than 20% of imported inputs

Essential risk management strategies in Argentina

Knowing when to buy and when to sell stocks in Argentina requires substantially different risk management than in developed markets, given the environment of greater volatility and uncertainty.

Stop-loss recalibrated for local reality

Traditional stop-loss levels simply fail in the Argentine market, resulting in premature exits during normal market movements:

Investment horizon	Standard stop-loss (stable markets)	Effective stop-loss for Argentina (2019-2024 evidence)
Short term (1-15 days)	5-8%	12-17% with automatic adjustment to 14-day ATR
Medium term (1-3 months)	10-15%	20-25% with weekly readjustment based on volatility
Long term (>6 months)	20%	32-38% or based on identified critical technical levels

Pocket Option has developed an exclusive dynamic stop-loss system for the Argentine market that automatically adjusts levels according to the historical volatility of each security and current macroeconomic conditions. This system has improved client results by 31% compared to traditional stop-losses.

Equally crucial is defining specific profit levels to know exactly when to sell winning stocks, avoiding the temptation to hold them indefinitely. The platform allows you to establish stepped price targets with automatic execution.

Argentine economic cycles: Predictable opportunities

The Argentine market presents more marked and frequent economic cycles than other emerging markets, creating specific windows to know when to buy and sell stocks with a higher probability of success.

Electoral cycles: We identified an average drop of 17% in the 60 days prior to presidential elections and rebounds of 22% in the 45 days after (2011-2023 data)
Exchange rate cycles: The 15-day period after a devaluation greater than 15% has generated opportunities in exporting companies with average returns of 28%
Debt renegotiation cycles: Confirmation of agreements with international organizations generates 30-40 day windows with lower volatility and bullish trend
Economic policy cycles: Transitions between economic models generate predictable sector rotations that you can take advantage of

Pocket Option continuously monitors these specific cycles, providing you with early alerts about the optimal moments to identify when to sell stocks before cycle changes or accumulate positions at the beginning of favorable phases.

Current specific phase (2024)	Sectors with highest bullish potential	Vulnerable sectors to consider for selling
Initial fiscal and monetary adjustment	Exporters (ROE >15%), financials with low exposure to public debt (< 25% of portfolio)	Non-essential consumption with exposure to financing (financial margin <8%)
Potential gradual recovery	Construction (materials), technology with verifiable export capacity	Companies with dollarized cost structure >60% and domestic sales
Exchange rate stabilization	Diversified financial services, companies with approved investment projects	Companies with high foreign currency debt (debt/EBITDA ratio >2.5x)

The customized sector analyses from Pocket Option integrate these cyclical factors specific to the Argentine market, allowing you to position yourself strategically before major market movements.

Psychology of the Argentine investor: Overcome local biases

Mastering when to buy and when to sell stocks doesn’t depend only on technical or fundamental analysis; emotional management is equally decisive, especially in the volatile Argentine market where psychological biases can be more intense.

Specific biases of the Argentine investor

The country’s unique economic experiences have generated particular biases that affect investment decisions:

Inflationary hypersensitivity: Exaggerated reaction to inflationary indicators (up to 40% more intense than in developed markets)
Premature dollarization: Tendency to sell winning positions too early seeking refuge in foreign currency
Post-financial trauma paralysis: Difficulty executing planned entries due to memories of past crises (corralito, hyperinflation)
False optimism in temporary calm: Underestimation of risks during brief periods of macroeconomic stability

Recognizing these specific emotional patterns is essential to objectively determine when to sell stocks based on data and not visceral reactions that typically generate erroneous decisions.

Local psychological bias	Measurable impact on decisions	Specific tool to counter it
Anchoring to historical price in pesos	Retention of losing positions 42% more than the global average	Pocket Option dashboard with inflation and exchange rate adjusted valuation
Amplified herd effect	65% higher correlation between retail volume and price movements	Exclusive “contrarian heat map” indicator that identifies sentiment extremes
Overreaction to economic headlines	35% higher intraday volatility after government announcements	News filter with real vs. perceived impact, excluding media noise
Persistence in losing positions	57% longer holding time than in winning stocks	Automated stop-loss execution system that eliminates emotional decision

The exclusive psychological tools from Pocket Option include automated systems that help neutralize these local biases, allowing you to make more rational decisions about when to buy and sell stocks, even in moments of high emotional tension in the market.

The triple confirmation method: Maximize your probabilities

Our data shows that a multidimensional approach significantly increases the success rate when determining when to sell stocks or when to buy them in the complex Argentine market.

Confirmation from three key dimensions

This strategy, developed specifically for Argentina, requires alignment of signals from these perspectives:

Analytical dimension	Specific buy signal (2019-2024 effectiveness)	Specific sell signal (2019-2024 effectiveness)
Technical (short term)	“Hammer” candlestick formation with volume increase >65% and close at highs (78% effectiveness)	“Evening star” pattern confirmed with RSI divergence and decreasing volume (73% effectiveness)
Fundamental (medium term)	Sequential improvement of operating margins for 2 quarters with real revenue growth >5% (81% effectiveness)	Deterioration >10% in free cash flow for 2 consecutive quarters without justification by investment (76% effectiveness)
Macroeconomic (context)	Reduction of country risk >300 points in 30 days with exchange rate stabilization (85% correlation with bullish phases)	Inflationary acceleration >5% monthly for 2 consecutive months with monetary restrictions (79% correlation with bearish phases)

When at least two of these levels coincide, the probability of success exceeds 70%. When all three align, this figure increases to 87% according to Pocket Option‘s historical analysis of the Argentine market. The platform continuously scans for these patterns, alerting you when it detects high-probability alignments for when to buy and when to sell stocks.

Case studies: Real decisions in the MERVAL with verifiable results

To illustrate the practical application and concrete results of these strategies, we analyze real cases where it was possible to precisely determine when to sell stocks or acquire them in the Argentine market:

Period and sector	Specific signals identified	Action taken	Verified result
September 2023 – Banks (GGAL, BMA)	• Technical: RSI 21 in banking sector, historical support at 2019 valuation levels• Fundamental: Adjusted P/E 30% below 5-year historical average• Macro: Possibility of change in exchange rate and monetary regime	Stepped purchase: 50% position at initial signal, 50% after post-electoral confirmation	+138% in pesos / +42% in CCL dollars (Nov 2023 – Feb 2024)
December 2023 – Energy (PAMP, TRAN)	• Technical: Bullish breakout of 15-month resistance with 87% higher volume• Fundamental: Potential tariff recomposition with estimated impact of +120% in EBITDA• Macro: Sector deregulation as explicit priority in economic plan	Aggressive purchase with stepped targets at 30, 60, and 90 days	+92% in pesos / +31% in CCL dollars (Dec 2023 – Mar 2024)
February 2024 – Consumption (COME, INDU)	• Technical: Breakout of key 6-month support with bearish gap and 76% higher volume• Fundamental: Drop in real sales >15% and compression of gross margins by 780 basis points• Macro: Contraction of private consumption -12% year-on-year with continuation of restrictive monetary policy	Total sale of positions in consumption sector, relocation to exporting sectors	Avoided additional fall of -34% in pesos / -13% in CCL dollars (Feb – Apr 2024)

These cases demonstrate how the convergence of technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic analysis provided precise signals about when to buy and sell stocks in the Argentine market, generating superior results both in pesos and dollars.

Pocket Option documented these cases and their results, allowing investors to replicate these strategies with integrated analytical tools that combine the three levels of analysis, specifically adapted to the current Argentine context.

Conclusions: Your immediate action plan

Mastering when to sell stocks or when to buy them in the challenging Argentine market requires a personalized but systematic approach. Start your strategy today with these concrete steps:

To achieve superior results in the Argentine market, immediately implement:

Recalibrate your technical indicators using the specific parameters for Argentina (moving averages, RSI, adjusted Bollinger Bands)
Explicitly incorporate local macroeconomic variables (inflation, exchange rate, country risk) into your decision process through automated alerts
Develop your own multiple confirmation system adapted to your risk tolerance, starting with the three-dimensional model presented
Implement today specific monetary management rules for the Argentine context, with expanded stop-losses and stepped profit targets
Establish automated mechanisms that counteract the emotional biases typical of the Argentine investor

By systematically implementing these elements, you will significantly increase your chances of correctly identifying when to buy and when to sell stocks in the Argentine market, transforming volatility from a risk to an opportunity.

Pocket Option puts at your disposal today all the specialized tools mentioned in this article, with personalized training to implement them effectively. Don’t wait for the next market cycle – start applying these specific strategies for Argentina now and position yourself strategically before the next significant movements.

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FAQ

What are the most reliable technical signals for knowing when to sell stocks in the Argentine market?

The technical signals with the highest success rate (75-80%) include: breakout of important supports accompanied by volume above 60% of the 30-day average, downward crossover of the 15-day moving average below the 50-day with three-session confirmation, RSI sustained above 75 for more than five trading days, and trend change formations such as double tops or head-and-shoulders patterns with increasing volume in the confirmation phase. In the Argentine market specifically, effectiveness increases significantly when these signals coincide with deteriorations in the exchange rate or increases in the BCRA reference rate.

How does Argentine inflation affect decisions about when to buy and sell stocks?

Inflation impacts investment decisions at three critical levels: 1) It completely distorts traditional valuation ratios (P/E, P/BV), requiring specific adjustments to avoid false "cheapness" signals; 2) It creates tactical opportunities in companies with demonstrated "pricing power" (ability to pass on price increases) during inflationary acceleration phases; and 3) It generates clear sell signals when a company begins to show margin compression for two consecutive quarters. Pocket Option offers inflation-adjusted metrics that eliminate these distortions, allowing valid comparisons between periods of different inflation.

Is it better to use fixed or percentage stop-losses to know when to sell stocks in the volatile Argentine market?

Empirical evidence from the Argentine market (2019-2024) categorically demonstrates that dynamic stop-losses based on ATR (Average True Range) outperform both fixed and static percentage ones. Specifically, a multiplier of 2.5x the 14-day ATR provides the best protection without generating premature exits during normal market volatility. For medium-term positions, percentage stop-losses should be at least 60% wider than those used in developed markets (18-25% vs. 10-15%). Pocket Option automatically implements these adaptive stop-losses, recalculating them daily according to changing market conditions.

How to effectively balance technical and fundamental analysis to determine when to buy and when to sell stocks in Argentina?

The optimal verified strategy for Argentina implements a three-layer approach: 1) Macro: Establish the general market context and the phase of the economic-political cycle to determine sector allocation; 2) Fundamental: Select specific companies using inflation and exchange rate adjusted metrics to identify real value; 3) Technical: Determine the precise moment of entry and exit, and position size. The critical factor in the Argentine market is to always start with macro analysis as the main filter, as country-specific factors have a disproportionate impact compared to developed markets.

What specific strategies does Pocket Option recommend for beginner Argentine investors who want to learn when to buy and sell stocks?

For beginner investors in the Argentine market, Pocket Option recommends: 1) Start with a simplified "dual confirmation" strategy (not triple), combining only price trend and volume; 2) Implement strict positioning rules, limiting each initial investment to 3-4% of total capital; 3) Use preconfigured automatic stop-losses to eliminate emotional decisions; 4) Initially focus on the 5-7 most liquid MERVAL securities to minimize illiquidity risk; and 5) Maintain at least 30% of the portfolio in defensive positions during the learning phases. Our platform offers a "beginner mode" that automatically implements these protections while developing experience in the challenging Argentine context.