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Pocket Option: Should You Buy Techcombank Stock 2025

Pocket Option: Should You Buy Techcombank Stock 2025

11 min to read

09 April 2025

11 min to read

Should You Buy Techcombank Stock: Comprehensive Analysis and Investment Strategy 2025

In the context of Vietnam's volatile stock market with the VN-Index up 12% since early 2024, the question "should you buy Techcombank stock" has become a top concern for many investors. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of TCB stock, from its financial situation with 19.2% ROE to its 20% growth prospects in 2025, helping you make informed investment decisions based on actual data.

Overview of Techcombank and its Leading Position in Vietnam’s Banking Industry

Techcombank (stock code: TCB) is one of the largest joint-stock commercial banks in Vietnam, established in 1993 and currently having a market capitalization of 170,000 billion VND. With over 30 years of operation, Techcombank has built a solid position in the Top 3 largest private banks, especially leading in the premium customer segment with 2.5 million affluent customers and 25,000 medium and large enterprise customers.

The question “should I buy Techcombank stock” cannot be answered simply but requires careful analysis based on specific data. Techcombank is not just an ordinary bank but a financial institution leading in digital transformation with 95% of transactions conducted through electronic channels, focusing on customer experience and comprehensive financial solutions.

In the context of Vietnam’s economy recovering strongly with a forecasted GDP growth of 6.5% in 2025, experts from Pocket Option and international financial institutions such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs highly evaluate the growth potential of 15-20% for Vietnamese bank stocks, especially banks with strong technology platforms and clear business strategies like Techcombank.

Key Financial Indicators	Information (Q3/2024)
Stock code	TCB
Listed exchange	HOSE
Listing date	04/06/2018
Market capitalization	170,326 billion VND (10/2024)
ROE	19.2% (2023)
Current price	48,500 VND

Techcombank Financial Analysis 2024: Database for the Question of Whether to Buy TCB Stock

To answer the question “should I buy Techcombank stock,” we need to analyze core financial indicators based on the latest Q3/2024 financial report. In the first 9 months of 2024, Techcombank demonstrated superior profitability with pre-tax profit reaching 19,245 billion VND, an increase of 16.8% compared to the same period last year.

Outstanding Profit Growth and Asset Quality

Techcombank consistently maintains a Return on Equity (ROE) ratio of 19.2%, significantly higher than the industry average of 15%. The bank’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is tightly controlled at 1.2%, considerably lower than the SBV’s requirement of 3% and the industry average of 1.8%. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the advanced risk management system that the bank is implementing.

Key Financial Indicators	Techcombank	Industry Average	Competitive Advantage
ROE	19.2%	15%	+4.2%
Non-performing loan ratio (NPL)	1.2%	1.8%	+0.6%
NIM (Net Interest Margin)	4.7%	3.8%	+0.9%
CIR (Cost-to-Income Ratio)	28.3%	40.5%	+12.2%
CASA	46.2%	21.3%	+24.9%

Analysts from Pocket Option assess that Techcombank’s financial health is excellent, with a strong capital structure (CAR 15.2%) and superior profitability. This is a decisive factor when considering whether to buy TCB stock for a long-term investment portfolio.

In particular, the strategy of focusing on non-credit segments helps Techcombank achieve a non-interest income/total income ratio of 33.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of only 19.7%. This creates a foundation for sustainable long-term growth, reducing dependence on interest rate fluctuations and credit cycles.

Competitive Position and 5 Unique Advantages of Techcombank

When analyzing the question “should I buy TCB stock,” one of the decisive factors is Techcombank’s unique competitive position in Vietnam’s banking industry.

Leading in digital transformation with 95% of transactions conducted through electronic channels, saving 1,250 billion VND in operating costs annually
Comprehensive financial ecosystem with 14 strategic partners including Masan Group, Vingroup, and leading insurance companies
CASA ratio (current account savings account) reaching 46.2%, highest in the industry, helping reduce cost of funds to 2.9% (0.8% lower than industry average)
High-income customer segment with 2.5 million affluent customers, accounting for 83% of total individual deposits
Advanced risk management system according to Basel III standards, resulting in a low NPL ratio of only 1.2% (0.6% lower than industry average)

Techcombank is a pioneer in applying blockchain technology to banking operations in Vietnam, with over 35 million payment transactions processed through this platform monthly. The Techcombank Mobile digital banking application achieves 4.8/5 stars on the App Store, the highest among banking applications in Vietnam, with 5.8 million monthly active users.

Pocket Option analysts note that the strategy of focusing on digital experience and the high-income customer segment has helped Techcombank build a sustainable competitive advantage, with customer acquisition costs 35% lower than the industry average and the highest customer retention rate at 94.3%.

“Consumer-Led” Business Strategy Creates Unique Advantage

Techcombank’s “Consumer-Led” business model not only focuses on selling products but also provides comprehensive financial solutions for each stage of customers’ lives. This strategy has helped the bank increase Customer Lifetime Value by 2.3 times over the past 5 years.

Unique Strategy	Specific Benefits	Results Achieved
Focus on affluent and SME segments	Higher NIM (4.7%), lower credit costs (0.4%)	Average customer income increasing 23% annually
Developing digital banking with blockchain platform	62% reduction in operating costs, 84% increase in customer experience	95% of transactions through digital channels, CIR down to 28.3%
Increasing non-credit income ratio	Diversification of revenue sources, reducing dependence on interest rates	33.5% of income from non-credit activities
Financial ecosystem with 14 strategic partners	Cross-selling 4.2 products/customer	28% increase in service fee revenue

Technical Analysis of TCB Stock: Price Trends and Ideal Buying Points

To answer the question “should I buy Techcombank stock” from the perspective of suitable buying timing, technical analysis plays a decisive role, especially for short and medium-term investors.

According to the latest analysis from Pocket Option experts, TCB stock is forming a long-term uptrend on the weekly chart with a distinct “Cup and Handle” pattern. TCB’s strong support level is in the range of 42,500-43,800 VND (corresponding to Fibonacci 0.382), while important resistance is at 55,200-57,600 VND (historical peak established in May 2024).

RSI(14) reached 63.5 points, not yet in the overbought zone (>70), showing room for price increases
MACD has crossed above the signal line since September 12, 2024, creating a strong buy signal
The MA50 has crossed above MA200 since August 2024, creating a “Golden Cross” – a long-term uptrend signal
Average trading volume for 10 sessions reached 8.3 million units/session, up 26% compared to the 30-session average

Based on technical indicators, the ideal buying point for TCB is when the price corrects to the 42,500-43,800 VND range, with short-term target of 52,000 VND (+20%) and medium-term target of 57,600 VND (+34%). However, investors should place stop-loss orders if the price breaks below 40,500 VND (-6.5% from support level).

Growth Prospects for 2025 and Specific Risks to Note

When considering whether to buy Techcombank stock, a detailed assessment of growth prospects and potential risks is a deciding factor for investment decisions.

5 Growth Drivers Based on Actual Data

Based on data analysis from Pocket Option and international financial institutions, Techcombank has 5 specific favorable factors to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025:

SME credit market share only accounts for 11.3% (compared to 25% of VPBank), creating growth potential of 13.7%
Digitization strategy helps reduce operating costs by 62%, CIR expected to decrease from 28.3% to 26% in 2025
Vietnam’s economy forecasted to grow GDP by 6.5% in 2025, driving credit demand up by 15-16%
Banking service penetration rate in Vietnam only reaches 64% (compared to 85% in Thailand), room for an additional 21%
Vietnam’s middle class expected to increase from 25% to 45% of the population by 2030, creating significant demand for premium banking services

Growth Forecast Based on Q3/2024 Data	2024	2025	2026
Profit growth	16.8%	20.2%	22.4%
Credit growth	13.5%	15.8%	17.2%
NIM	4.7%	4.8%	4.9%
Non-credit income/Total income	33.5%	35.8%	38.2%
ROE	19.2%	20.5%	21.8%

However, the question “should I buy Techcombank stock” cannot be fully answered without examining in detail the potential risks that could affect investment results:

4 Specific Risks to Monitor Closely

Despite positive prospects, investors need to consider 4 main risks when deciding whether to buy TCB stock:

Intense competition in digital banking with MBBank and VPBank heavily investing in technology (1,250 billion VND/year)
Interest rate fluctuations: each 0.25% increase in interest rates could reduce NIM by 0.05-0.07%, affecting profit by 1.2-1.5%
Real estate cycle risk: Techcombank has 27.8% of loan balance related to real estate, 5.6% higher than industry average
Cybersecurity risk: with 95% of transactions through digital channels, each hour of system disruption could cause damage of 15-20 billion VND

According to experts at Pocket Option, investors need to carefully assess the impact of each of these risks on their personal investment portfolio before deciding whether to buy Techcombank stock. In particular, monitoring developments in the real estate cycle and the SBV’s interest rate policy is very important in the coming quarters.

Detailed Comparison of Techcombank with 3 Other Leading Banks

To answer the question “should I buy TCB stock” objectively and comprehensively, comparing Techcombank with banks in the same segment is a mandatory analysis step.

Financial and Valuation Indicators (Q3/2024)	Techcombank	VPBank	ACB	MBBank
P/E (TTM)	8.5x	9.2x	7.8x	7.5x
P/B (current)	1.52x	1.34x	1.58x	1.43x
ROE (2023)	19.2%	16.5%	17.8%	18.5%
NPL ratio	1.2%	3.5%	1.5%	1.3%
CAR (Basel II)	15.2%	14.3%	13.5%	12.8%
NIM	4.7%	5.1%	4.2%	4.5%
CASA	46.2%	15.8%	22.4%	38.7%
CIR	28.3%	32.5%	36.8%	30.2%

From the detailed comparison table above, it can be seen that Techcombank stands out with 5 specific competitive advantages:

Highest ROE (19.2%), exceeding VPBank by 2.7%, ACB by 1.4%, and MBBank by 0.7%
Lowest NPL ratio (1.2%), better than VPBank by 2.3%, ACB by 0.3%, and MBBank by 0.1%
Highest capital adequacy ratio (CAR) (15.2%), significantly higher than the average of 13.5% of the other 3 banks
Market-leading CASA (46.2%), higher than VPBank by 30.4%, ACB by 23.8%, and MBBank by 7.5%
Lowest CIR (28.3%), more efficient than VPBank by 4.2%, ACB by 8.5%, and MBBank by 1.9%

However, in terms of P/E and P/B valuations, Techcombank is not the cheapest option in the group: TCB’s P/E (8.5x) is higher than ACB (7.8x) and MBBank (7.5x), but lower than VPBank (9.2x); TCB’s P/B (1.52x) is higher than VPBank (1.34x) and MBBank (1.43x), but lower than ACB (1.58x).

According to Pocket Option expert assessment, although TCB’s valuation is higher than some competitors, with superior asset quality (NPL 1.2%) and strong growth potential (profit expected to increase 20.2% in 2025), TCB stock is still reasonably valued and has potential for 20-25% price increase in the next 12 months.

3 Detailed TCB Stock Investment Strategies by Objective

The question “should I buy Techcombank stock” needs to be answered specifically according to each investment objective and timeframe. Below are 3 detailed investment strategies that can be applied to TCB stock:

Long-term Investment Strategy (over 3 years)

For long-term investors, Techcombank stands out as an attractive choice for 4 main reasons:

Strong financial foundation with CAR 15.2% and NPL 1.2%, ROE forecasted to increase to 21.8% by 2026
Leading position in digital transformation with 95% of transactions through electronic channels and 5.8 million monthly app users
Ability to maintain compound profit growth (CAGR) of 20% during 2024-2026 due to “Consumer-Led” model
Potential to increase dividends from 25% to 40% in the next 3 years as CAR far exceeds requirements (8%)

The optimal long-term investment strategy with TCB includes buying and holding stocks, while accumulating more during deep corrections (15-20% decrease from peak). Based on the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model, TCB’s long-term target price could reach 75,000-80,000 VND by 2026 (+65-75% from current price).

Experts from Pocket Option recommend long-term investors should allocate 7-10% of their portfolio to TCB stock, with 70% of capital invested at current price levels and 30% remaining ready to buy more during corrections.

Medium-term Investment Strategy (6-24 months)

For medium-term investors, the question of whether to buy Techcombank stock needs to be examined more carefully, with a specific strategy:

Buy 50% at strong support zones of 42,500-43,800 VND (Fibonacci 0.382) and 50% when uptrend confirmation occurs (breakout above 49,500 VND with large volume)
Take profit on 30% when reaching target 1 (52,000 VND, +20%), 40% when reaching target 2 (57,600 VND, +34%), keep remaining 30% for long-term target
Use 8% trailing stop method to protect achieved profits
Set stop-loss at 40,500 VND (-6.5% from lowest buying point) to control risk

Pocket Option provides the “Advanced Chart” technical analysis tool with 86 technical indicators and price patterns, helping investors precisely identify ideal entry and exit points for TCB stock. The real-time price alert system will notify when TCB touches important price levels.

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Conclusion: Should You Buy Techcombank Stock in 2025?

After a comprehensive analysis of all aspects of Techcombank based on data updated to Q3/2024, we can provide a well-founded answer to the question “should I buy Techcombank stock.”

Techcombank with ROE 19.2%, low NPL ratio 1.2%, market-leading CASA 46.2%, and superior digitization strategy (95% of transactions through electronic channels), is showing strong growth potential with forecasted profit increase of 20.2% in 2025. The P/E valuation of 8.5x and P/B of 1.52x, while not the cheapest in the industry, remains attractive compared to growth potential.

However, the decision on whether to buy TCB stock depends on 3 main factors for each investor:

For long-term investors (over 3 years): TCB is an attractive choice with potential to increase 65-75% by 2026, should account for 7-10% of investment portfolio
For medium-term investors (6-24 months): TCB has positive prospects with targets of 20-34% increase, but needs a strategy of buying at support zone 42,500-43,800 VND or breakout above 49,500 VND
For short-term investors (under 6 months): Should wait for clear technical signals, with a minimum timeframe of 1-3 months to effectively profit from TCB

Final conclusion, Pocket Option recommends investors should appropriately allocate TCB stock in their investment portfolio, with appropriate weight according to personal objectives, while closely monitoring influencing factors: (1) Macroeconomic situation and interest rate policy, (2) TCB’s quarterly business results, (3) Real estate market developments, and (4) Competition in digital banking.

The question “should I buy TCB stock” does not have an absolutely correct answer for everyone, but depends on each personal investment strategy. Consult financial experts from Pocket Option through the “Expert Advisor” feature to receive detailed analysis suitable for your financial situation and specific objectives.

FAQ

Is Techcombank stock currently fairly valued?

Based on current indicators, Techcombank stock is trading at a P/E of 8.5x and P/B of 1.52x, higher than some banks like ACB (P/E 7.8x) and MBBank (P/E 7.5x), but lower than VPBank (P/E 9.2x). With an ROE of 19.2% (highest in the group) and expected profit growth rate of 20.2% in 2025, TCB is still considered fairly valued. TCB's PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio of 0.42, lower than 1.0, indicates the stock still has room for a 20-25% price increase in the next 12 months.

How to effectively analyze TCB stock?

Effective TCB analysis requires combining 4 methods: (1) Fundamental analysis - tracking ROE, NIM, NPL ratio, CIR, CASA in quarterly financial reports; (2) Technical analysis - using price patterns, MA50/MA200 lines, RSI, MACD and Bollinger Bands indicators; (3) Industry analysis - comparing with VPBank, ACB, MBBank to determine competitive position; (4) Macroeconomic analysis - assessing the impact of interest rates, exchange rates, monetary policy and real estate cycles. Pocket Option provides a "Comprehensive Analysis" tool that integrates all 4 of these methods, updated in real-time.

What is the best time to buy Techcombank stock?

The ideal time to buy TCB is when: (1) The price adjusts to the strong support zone of 42,500-43,800 VND (Fibonacci 0.382); (2) After announcing quarterly business results that exceed expectations (usually in the 3rd-4th week of the first month of the quarter); (3) When there are technical signals confirming an uptrend: MACD crosses above the signal line + RSI exceeds 50 + trading volume increases 30% compared to the 20-session average; (4) After general market corrections that are not related to Techcombank's fundamentals.

What specific risks should be noted for Techcombank?

Four main risks: (1) Real estate cycle risk - 27.8% of TCB's outstanding loans are related to real estate, every 5% decrease in real estate prices could increase NPL by 0.3-0.4%; (2) Interest rate risk - each 0.25% increase in interest rates could reduce NIM by 0.05-0.07%, affecting 1.2-1.5% of profits; (3) Digital banking competition - VPBank and MBBank are investing 1,250 billion VND/year in technology, which may reduce TCB's competitive advantage; (4) Cybersecurity risk - with 95% of transactions through digital channels, security incidents could cause significant financial and reputational damage.

Should Techcombank stock be purchased with a long-term investment strategy?

For long-term investment (over 3 years), TCB is considered an attractive choice with 4 specific advantages: (1) Strong financial foundation (CAR 15.2%, NPL 1.2%, ROE 19.2%); (2) Leading position in digital transformation; (3) Expected profit CAGR of 20% for the 2024-2026 period; (4) Potential to increase dividends from 25% to 40%. The optimal strategy is to allocate 7-10% of the portfolio to TCB, buy 70% at the current price and 30% during corrections, with a price target of 75,000-80,000 VND by 2026 (+65-75%). However, it is necessary to closely monitor banking industry developments and monetary policy.