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Is it worth buying Aluar shares? Comprehensive market analysis

Is it worth buying Aluar shares? Comprehensive market analysis

3 min to read

09 April 2025

3 min to read

Is it worth buying Aluar shares? Investment strategies in Argentine aluminum

The Argentine stock market presents unique opportunities for investors interested in the aluminum industrial sector. Regarding the question "is it worth buying Aluar shares?", this article presents an analysis based on the most recent data, specific macroeconomic factors, and practical strategies to maximize the profitability of this key Merval stock.

The Argentine market offers specific opportunities in the industrial sector. Aluar, the only integrated aluminum producer in Argentina, represents a strategic investment option. Analyzing whether it is worth buying Aluar shares requires evaluating technical and fundamental factors that determine its current and potential value.

Current overview of Aluar in the stock market

Aluar dominates primary aluminum production in Argentina and maintains a relevant presence in Latin America. Its current price reflects both the Argentine economy and global aluminum trends, a strategic material for key industries.

In the last two quarters, Aluar’s price has fluctuated between 250 and 330 Argentine pesos. Platforms like Pocket Option have recorded these variations, correlated with specific macroeconomic events such as changes in exchange rate and energy policies.

Indicator	Recent value	Trend
Price/Earnings (P/E)	15.7	Decreasing (17%)
Dividends	3.2% annually	Stable
Volatility	28.5%	Increasing
Trading volume	$5.4M daily	+12% monthly

Key factors determining investment in Aluar

Experts from Pocket Option identify five critical variables that explain why Aluar shares drop in certain periods:

International aluminum price (currently at $2,350/ton)
Energy costs (represent 32% of operating costs)
Exchange rate (exports 65% of production)
Local industrial demand (8.5% drop in 2024)
International trade restrictions

Economic factor	Quantified impact
+10% in dollar price	+7.2% in operating margin
+15% in energy costs	-5.8% in profitability
-5% in industrial demand	-3.5% in revenue
+20% in external tariffs	-12% in exports

Technical analysis for short-term decisions

To determine if it is worth buying Aluar shares, technical analysis reveals consistent patterns. Historical data on Pocket Option shows that Aluar usually finds support at levels close to 0.85x its book value (currently near 247 pesos).

When investors ask why Aluar shares drop, technical analysis shows three recurring patterns:

Breaking of 50-day support with volume 40% above average
RSI divergence at levels above 75
Inverse correlation with interest rate hikes (+1% in rate = -3.8% in price)

Industrial cycles of aluminum

The aluminum industry operates in identifiable cycles that explain why Aluar shares drop even with solid fundamentals. The current cycle began in 2022 and is in a price consolidation phase.

Cycle phase	Average duration	Recommended strategy
Expansion (2021-2022)	18 months	Gradual accumulation
Consolidation (current)	12-15 months	Partial positions
Contraction (projected)	8-10 months	Coverage with options
Recovery (expected)	14-16 months	Increased exposure

Strategies according to investor profile

Answering if it is worth buying Aluar shares depends on the investor’s profile. Pocket Option offers tools adapted to different time horizons:

Long-term (3+ years): Staggered purchases at P/E levels below 12
Medium-term (6-18 months): Mean reversion strategies
Short-term (1-3 months): Leveraging 45-60 day technical cycles

A contrarian approach considers that the best time to evaluate if it is worth buying Aluar shares is precisely when the stock trades 25-30% below recent highs with decreasing volume.

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Conclusion: Current evaluation of Aluar

Determining if it is worth buying Aluar shares requires a personalized analysis according to your risk profile. In the current context (April 2025), Aluar presents attractive valuations for medium-long term investors, with P/E 15% lower than the 5-year historical average.

The analytical tools from Pocket Option allow monitoring the critical factors that determine both the upside potential (export expansion 2025-2026) and the inherent risks (pressure on energy costs).

For investors seeking exposure to Argentine industry, Aluar represents an alternative with adequate liquidity, consistent fundamentals, and upside potential of 18-22% in 12-month horizons, according to identified cycles and demand projections for the construction sector in Latin America.

FAQ

What is the ideal time to buy Aluar shares?

The optimal moment is when it trades below 0.9x its book value and the aluminum price shows stabilization. Currently, levels close to 255 pesos represent attractive entry zones with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

How does Argentina's energy policy affect Aluar?

Each 10% increase in electricity rates reduces Aluar's operating margin by 3.8%. The company has long-term supply contracts that partially mitigate this risk, but it remains their main cost factor.

What indicators should I monitor before investing in Aluar?

Follow the international aluminum price (LME), the effective exchange rate for exporters, and quarterly results. The combination of these three factors anticipates price movements with 82% historical effectiveness.

Is Aluar a good option for conservative investors?

Aluar has a volatility of 28.5%, higher than the Merval average. Conservative investors should limit their exposure to 3-5% of the portfolio and consider staggered entry strategies at specific technical levels.

What advantages does Pocket Option offer for trading Aluar shares?

Pocket Option provides advanced charts with specific technical indicators for Aluar and customizable alerts. Its platform allows executing conditional orders based on key technical levels and managing positions with adjustable stop-loss.