Pocket Option analysis of HVN stock

Overview of HVN Stocks and Vietnam’s Aviation Industry

HVN stock (stock code for Vietnam Airlines Corporation – Vietnam Airlines) is attracting special attention from investors thanks to its monopolistic position as the national airline. Vietnam Airlines not only plays a leading role in Vietnam’s transportation system but also represents the country in the Southeast Asian aviation market.

After the crisis period due to COVID-19, Vietnam’s aviation industry is entering a strong recovery cycle. This recovery depends on four main factors: international tourism reopening policies, fuel price fluctuations, competitive pressure from low-cost airlines, and the effectiveness of debt restructuring strategies.

When analyzing HVN stock, investors need to analyze both micro and macro factors simultaneously. Data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam shows that the domestic market has fully recovered 100% compared to pre-pandemic levels, while the international market is reaching 85% and is expected to complete recovery by Q3/2025.

Fundamental Analysis of HVN Stock

In the process of evaluating HVN stock, fundamental analysis plays a key role. Vietnam Airlines has gone through a financial crisis with accumulated losses up to 36,329 billion VND (as of the end of 2023), however, from Q2/2024, the situation has shown clear positive changes.

Financial Situation of Vietnam Airlines

Vietnam Airlines’ Q2/2024 financial report recorded many encouraging signals. Revenue increased by 28.7% compared to the same period last year, while the company recorded a profit for the first time after 15 consecutive quarters of losses. In particular, the company has successfully restructured 14,800 billion VND of debt and reduced financial leverage from 27.3 to 15.2.

The above financial figures demonstrate Vietnam Airlines’ transformation process. Notably, along with a 52% increase in revenue in 2023, the company reduced losses by 67%, and especially achieved a profit of 215 billion VND in Q2/2024 — an important milestone signaling a new era.

Leverage Factors for Vietnam Airlines’ Prospects

Experts from Pocket Option assess that the outlook for airline stocks, especially HVN, is shifting from “recovery” to “growth” with clear market drivers.

Technical Analysis of HVN Stock

Alongside fundamental analysis, technical analysis provides a multidimensional view when evaluating HVN stock. The 12-month price chart shows a transition from a sideways accumulation phase to an uptrend with a surge in volume from March 2024.

After a 9-month sideways period (from 5/2023 to 2/2024) around the 13,500-15,500 VND zone, HVN stock has broken through resistance with trading volume increasing 187% compared to the 20-session average, creating higher lows and higher highs – clear signs of a new uptrend.

Important support and resistance levels for HVN stock in the current phase:

Technical analysis from Pocket Option experts indicates that the 15,500 – 15,700 VND price range is currently an “attractive accumulation buying zone” with a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 when targeting 17,000 VND and setting stop-loss below 15,000 VND.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Airline Stocks

Airline stocks in general and HVN in particular are always strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors. Closely monitoring 4 main factors will help investors optimize their strategy when evaluating HVN stock.

Fuel Prices and Foreign Exchange Rates

Fuel costs accounted for 36.8% of Vietnam Airlines’ total operating costs in 2023. Each 1 USD/barrel fluctuation in Jet A1 fuel price directly impacts annual costs by 173 billion VND. Similarly, with 61% of costs denominated in USD, each 1% fluctuation in the USD/VND exchange rate affects business results by 420 billion VND.

Pocket Option experts assess that the overall macroeconomic factors are leaning toward the positive side for Vietnam Airlines. In particular, the forecast of Jet A1 fuel prices stabilizing around 85 USD/barrel – 18% lower than the 2022 peak – will help the airline save about 3,100 billion VND in fuel costs in 2024.

Investment Outlook for HVN Stock

After comprehensively analyzing the fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic aspects, we can provide a clear evaluation of HVN stock with three distinct scenarios. Each scenario is based on specific and quantifiable data.

Positive factors for HVN:

Challenges to overcome:

Detailed HVN Stock Investment Strategy by Investor Type

Based on the above HVN stock assessment, we propose detailed investment strategies suitable for specific investor profiles.

For short-term investors (1-3 months):

For medium-term investors (6-12 months):

Analytical tools from the Pocket Option platform will help investors accurately track optimal buy/sell points through automated technical alert systems and strategy backtest tools.

Lessons from Successful Investors in Airline Stocks

To complete our HVN stock assessment, let’s look at specific case studies from investors who have been successful with airline stocks, especially in the post-COVID period.

A notable case study from an investor using the Pocket Option platform shows that the “step-in buying” strategy (buying in steps) has yielded the highest effectiveness with HVN. Specifically, dividing capital into 4 parts and gradually buying when prices drop to Fibonacci support zones (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) created an average return of 28.7% during the 2023-2024 period.

Conclusion on HVN Stock Prospects

Summarizing the HVN stock assessment, we can clearly see that Vietnam Airlines is at an important turning point. From a heavily loss-making business after the pandemic, the airline has successfully transformed with profits returning from Q2/2024 and prospects continuing to improve in the next 12-18 months.

Although still facing specific challenges such as competitive pressure from Vietjet and Bamboo Airways, 4,200 billion VND of debt due in the coming year, and risks from fuel price fluctuations, Vietnam Airlines has four core competitive advantages: (1) monopolistic position as the national airline, (2) ownership of valuable international flight slots, (3) government support, and (4) effective restructuring strategy.

Technically, HVN stock is showing signals confirming a new uptrend with a “higher low, higher high” pattern and golden cross between MA20 and MA50. The optimal accumulation buying point is in the 15,500-15,700 VND range with a short-term target of 17,000 VND and medium-term target of 19,000 VND.

Investors should apply a reasonable capital allocation strategy, not exceeding 10% of the total portfolio in HVN, and always set stop-loss orders to protect capital. In particular, they need to closely monitor quarterly financial reports, Jet A1 fuel price movements, and international tourism figures to Vietnam.

The Pocket Option platform provides a set of in-depth analytical tools to help investors accurately track important variables affecting airline stocks, thereby making smart and timely investment decisions in the Vietnamese stock market.